The Forecast Method establishes the appropriate forecast unit cost, which is used to calculate the total forecast cost. The Forecast Method applies to individual cost items and can be changed at any time.
You can use several forecast production methods to calculate the cost of the remaining work associated with a cost item. This enables the control of forecasting on a cost item by cost item basis by controlling the calculation of the cost of the remaining work. The different methods available for forecasting are:
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Forecast Methods |
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|---|---|---|
|
Method |
Calculation |
Apply to |
|
Current Budget (CB) |
Actual Total cost + (Current budget unit cost * Quantity remaining) |
Terminal or superior cost items |
|
Current Estimate (CE) |
Actual Total cost + (Current estimate unit cost * Quantity remaining) |
Terminal or superior cost items |
|
Average Performance |
Actual Total cost + (Actual unit cost * Quantity remaining) |
Terminal or superior cost items |
|
Manual |
Manually entered forecast value |
Terminal or Superior cost items |
|
Rollup |
Forecast Total Cost = sum of subordinate forecast values |
Superior cost items |
|
Committed Cost |
Actual Total cost + Open/Remaining committed cost |
Terminal or superior cost items |
|
None |
The Forecast total cost will be 0 |
Terminal or superior cost items |
|
Contract |
Forecast total cost = Line item gross amount + vendor change order amount + Remaining to buy (value allocated to the first line item in the contract) |
Terminal or superior cost items |
|
Detailed ETC |
Actual Total cost + sum (Forecast remaining cost) for all assigned forecast resources. |
Terminal cost items |
| Static manual time phased forecasting (TPF) | The sum of the manually distributed time phased forecast cost. |
Terminal or superior cost items |
| Custom (customer specified) | Calculation specified by customer. | Terminal or superior cost items |
Forecast Method Assignment
There are three different ways to assign a forecast method:
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Globally to all cost items in the project
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Selection of multiple cost items
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Individual cost item
Global Forecast Method
From the Actions menu, you can set the forecast method globally for all the cost items within the project.
The Global forecast method only applies to the forecasted items of the user who performs the function. It does not apply to other users in the project.
The following steps walk you through applying a global Forecast Method.
Set Global Forecast Method
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From the CBS tab register, select the View menu.
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Select the Project Controls viewset.
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Click on the Actions drop-down menu and select Global Forecast Method.
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Select the Current Budget Forecast Method.
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Click Apply.
Only terminal cost items will adjust per the global Forecast Method selected. The parent item Forecast Method will stay as Rollup.
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Click Yes on the prompt that appears.
Forecast Method for Selected Items
You can also set the forecast method for selected cost items, as shown in the steps below.
Set the Forecast Method for Selected Items
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In the Tasks data block, select the check box next to the desired tasks.
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Select the Actions drop-down menu and select Set Forecast Method.
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On the resulting slide out panel, select your desired Forecast Method and click Apply.
Forecast Method for Individual Items
You may need to change the forecast method for a single cost item. The following Step by Step walks you through how to do so.
Set the Forecast Method for Individual Items
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In the Forecast data block, locate the Forecast Method column.
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Double click on the Forecast Method field for the your desired cost item.
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A dropdown menu appears where you can select your Forecast Method from a list
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Average Performance Forecast Method
The average performance forecast method lets you use actuals for a specific time frame range to determine the unit cost and rate for the remaining work when calculating the remaining forecast. Forecasting using average performance lets you forecast the remainder of work based off completed work.
When Average performance is selected as the forecast method in the CBS, you can click the value in the Average performance settings column and select a date range to use for the actual rate of completion for the remainder of work.
This feature lets you identify a length of time you want to utilize a cost item's hours and quantities to determine the install rates for the remaining work.
Click an Average Performance Settings CBS record to access the Average Performance Settings window.
|
Setting |
Usage notes |
|---|---|
|
Calculate average performance over all dates |
The average performance for the cost item takes all the dates into account when calculating its average performance. |
|
Calculate average performance based on most recent |
You can determine how many weeks or months to calculate the average performance for a cost item. For example, you determine that the last 2 weeks performance best represents how to progress, then you would calculate two weeks of average performance. |
| Calculate average performance over a specified range | Selecting a date range uses only the specified time range for calculating the average performance. |
| Calculate average performance from date | You can select a specific date to calculate average performance. After the learning period for the selected cost item is complete, you can use the average performance for a specific date and onward. |
The average performance settings can also be accessed in the cost item details slide-out panel.
As an example, if you choose to calculate the average performance based on the most recent three weeks, the Forecast remaining cost and Forecast remaining MHrs change based off the cost item’s performance from the last three weeks.
The Forecast method and Average performance settings changes are also shown in the cost item details slide-out panel.
Committed Cost Forecast Method
Committed Costs are obligations made for contract work or purchase orders that you have agreed to pay for. The Committed Cost forecast method provides you with the ability to use committed cost information to forecast your cost at completion.
Forecasting cost items can be done in the live or private forecast, and can be forecasted at the parent or terminal levels. The Committed Cost Forecast method can only be used when cost items have an Allow as-built of All or Costs. When the Allow as-built values are set to None or Quantities, this forecast method cannot be used because cost and committed costs cannot be claimed.
The Committed Cost forecast is mostly utilized on cost items that are driven from purchase orders or contracts. It is not used when you're claiming quantities. For example, this forecast method isn't suitable for direct labor items where quantities are claimed to generate progress and crew performance. This forecast method works well for cost items that are tied to a contract or PO.
When Open/Remaining Committed Cost values are being entered, these values will also update the forecast values in the CBS. There is also an integration available that allows you to import committed cost data from your ERP, instead of manually entering in the data. For more information on Commitment Costs, visit subject Track Open/Remaining and Total Committed Costs within this topic"Cost Item Setup"
The following columns will help you view the Committed Cost forecast method:
Forecast total cost: Forecast cost at completion which is equal to the Open/Remaining committed cost plus any Actual cost to date.
Forecast remaining cost: This is the amount of money that remaining to be paid out. This column is equal to the Open/Remaining Committed Cost.
The Committed cost forecast method is most commonly used for costs that are associated to a purchase order tracked through an ERP system. This method doesn't focus on quantities or percent complete, but rather the progression of costs paid towards the final agreed upon PO value.”
Contract Forecast Method
Using this forecast method, you can forecast by Contract values. This forecast method is only available in the forecast drop down for cost items that are assigned to a Contract.
Any modifications that you make in Contract automatically updates and comes into Control.
When a cost item is assigned to a contract, you have the option of adding the read-only column Number of contracts to your CBS. This column is an integer value that counts the number of contracts a particular cost item is associated to. You have to go into Contracts to see which Contract your cost item is associated to.
If the Number of contracts column is set to zero, the Contract Forecast Method becomes unavailable from the Live Forecast, Private Forecast, and the Cost Item Details slideout drop down for Live Forecast Method on the Details tab.
Contract Forecast Method pulls the cost that is associated to a specific cost item from Contracts. Cost items can be associated to the following if using Contract Forecast Method:
- Many different Contracts
- Many different line items across different Contracts
The cost item's Forecast Final Cost value sums up the line item amounts of all cost that is associated to a cost item from Contract.
Unapproved Contract Line Items
The line item price is included in the associated cost item's Contract forecast method when creating new line items in a Contract vendor change order.
After a new line item is saved, a batch process is initiated in the background that sends the line item’s net price over to Control.
The net price from Contract shows in Control’s forecast total cost column, which also includes the tax from pending vendor change orders.
Custom Forecast Method
The Custom forecast method lets you specify a calculation for a forecast cost and manhours. For more information, refer to Project Control settings where Custom forecast methods can be configured.
